Dated, resolvable predictions with a confidence attached. Reality settles them and the
record stays. It is the only credential here that no amount of argument can move —
which is why the person who is loudest about a topic and the person who is right about it
turn out to be different people.
Open questions
Nothing directional is shown until you answer. Declining costs nothing.
Politics · Finance
Will the CBO’s next long-term outlook project debt held by the public above 120% of GDP for FY2035?
Resolves CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, March 2027Forecasts 340
How likely is this?
50%
Curtis Bell 74%Tobias Lindqvist 55%Nadia Osei 48%
Local · Business
Will Providence’s downtown office vacancy rate be below 18% in the Q4 2026 CBRE report?
“I irrigate off a different system and I still check this every week.”
Recently resolved
Who came closest, what the community thought, and who moved.
Seven questions reality has settled. Two of the people who came closest were forecasting
against the policy they were arguing for at the time — which is the normal
case here, and the reason a forecast record is worth more than a position.
Resolved noCity Council vote, 14 August 2026
Will Providence adopt congestion pricing before 2027?
Closest Ines Karadžić · 12%Community mean 47%112 forecasts
“I supported the policy and still expected it to fail. Those are different
forecasts and people keep confusing them.”
Ines Karadžić · forecast against her own position
Ines KaradžićMoved 30% → 12% in June, after the committee agenda dropped the item twice. 3 updates
Marcus AdeyemiMoved steadily down and stayed above the outcome. 3 updates
Community meanDrifted late and not far enough. rolling
Resolved noState legislature tracking, mid-2026
Will any US state raise its minimum wage above $20 by mid-2026?
Closest Nadia Osei · 25%Community mean 58%287 forecasts
“I argued for this policy all year and forecast against it. Wanting a thing and
expecting it are separate questions.”
Nadia Osei · forecast against her own position
Nadia OseiMoved 38% → 25% in March, citing the two states that pulled their bills. 2 updates
Curtis BellMoved toward the bills passing and away from the outcome. 3 updates
Community meanStayed high throughout. rolling
Resolved yesBLS, 13 January 2026
Will US CPI year-over-year print below 3.0% for December 2025?
Closest Curtis Bell · 78%Community mean 44%391 forecasts
Curtis moved 61% → 78% in November, citing the shelter-cost lag. He was well ahead
of the community on this one.
Curtis BellMoved 61% → 78% in November, citing the shelter-cost lag. 2 updates
Tobias LindqvistMoved late and in the right direction. 3 updates
Community meanBarely moved. rolling
Resolved yesNOAA end-of-season summary
Will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season exceed the 30-year average for named storms?
Closest Halima Farouk · 71%Community mean 55%163 forecasts
Resolved yesONS quarterly estimate
Will UK monthly net migration fall below 300,000 in any quarter of 2026?
Closest Ivo Brenner · 69%Community mean 38%241 forecasts
Resolved noNorges Bank Investment Management annual report
Will the Norges Bank fund’s equity allocation exceed 72% at year-end 2025?
Closest Tobias Lindqvist · 33%Community mean 51%76 forecasts
Resolved yesRIDOT inspection record, November 2026
Will the Providence pedestrian bridge reopen to full load rating before the end of 2026?
Closest Priya Raghunathan · 82%Community mean 51%64 forecasts
Your best call, and your third resolved forecast. One good call in three tells you
nothing, which is why the count sits next to it everywhere it appears.
Ledgers
A distribution and a curve. There is no ranking on this page and there will not be one.
Whose record
Nobody’s forecast record is red or blue.
Declining is free
Skipping a question is recorded as a skip and costs nothing. There is no streak to break, no participation figure, and no penalty for forecasting only where you have an edge.
Updating is the skill
A trail that moves is a trail that was paying attention. Changing a forecast is shown as “3 updates”, never as changing your answer three times.
No ranking, ever
No top-forecaster list, no percentile badge, no ordering of members by score. Distributions and individual curves only — a Brier score is a description, not a position.